The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on April 08, 2026, issued the Monetary Policy Statement 2026-27.
The Monetary Policy Committee held its meeting and kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25%, with all other rates unchanged. The policy stance remains neutral, allowing flexibility in future actions.
The West Asia conflict has disrupted global supply chains, leading to higher inflation and slower global growth. Financial markets have become volatile, bond yields have increased, and the US dollar has strengthened. Further escalation remains a key risk.
India’s economy showed strong performance in 2025–26 with 7.6% GDP growth, driven by private consumption, investment, services, and manufacturing, while external demand remained weak.
For 2026–27, GDP growth is projected at 6.9%. Growth may be affected by high energy prices, supply disruptions, and weak exports, but government initiatives, manufacturing push, and strong domestic demand are expected to provide support.
Inflation increased slightly to 3.2% in February 2026, mainly due to base effects. Food inflation rose, while core inflation remained stable and moderate.
Inflation for 2026–27 is projected at 4.6%. Rising fuel prices due to global factors are a concern, while a good rabi crop supports food supply. Risks include high energy prices and possible El Niño conditions.
Although inflation is currently under control, future risks are increasing due to global uncertainties and supply disruptions. Core inflation remains contained but uncertain.
Economic activity continues to show strong momentum, supported by consumption and investment. However, global conflict may increase costs and disrupt supply chains, affecting growth, though government measures may help mitigate this impact.
Given the supply shock and uncertainty, RBI has adopted a wait-and-watch approach, keeping rates unchanged while remaining vigilant and flexible.
The MPC minutes will be released on April 22, 2026, and the next meeting is scheduled for June 3–5, 2026.
Please refer to the document attached below for more details.
[Press Release: 2026-27/36]
